Spatially explicit and temporally sensitive probabilistic modelling and environmental simulation offer advantages to large scale landscape planning and design, especially in the context of energy exploration. Using a case study from North America, we investigate the strengths and appropriate uses of probabilistic modelling for regional decision making. The case study explores shale gas extraction from the Marcellus Shale region. We not only demonstrate the usefulness for integrating these models in the design and planning process, but also offer some guidance for the appropriate scales and applications.