Urban sprawl is not merely a geographical expansion but also brings about a set of social and spatial changes such as the loss of human nature in urban life, the distortion of natural agricultural and archaeological landscapes and the transformation of natural landscapes into cultural landscapes. It is an obvious and crystal-clear fact that such changes are hard to control in developing countries. This study mainly aims at understanding the local scale variables leading the urban growth in Denizli, a city having a trend of fast settlement and urbanization, and analyzing how these variables would affect the way of urban growth in future. In this study, the spatial/positional variables on a local scale and the growth forms belonging to the years of 1987, 2001, 2013 and 2015 were correlated by using the Logistic Regression Analysis, and the urban growth in Denizli in 2025 was simulated. In the study, two models were created as the control model and estimation model in order to reach the simulation of 2025. In the control model, the urban growth belonging to 2015 was estimated by correlating the urban growth of 1987 and 2001 and an 80 % accuracy was attained for overlapping the outcomes of control model and the real-time urban growth in 2015. The valid accuracy rate in the control model was simulated via the estimation model (model 2) belonging to 2025. The primary aim should be taking control of construction and the city should be accordingly established upon a new model. In this regard, when analyzing the city models, it is thought that the model of a compact city is a sustainable model for Denizli.